There’s certainly no shortage of reports, surveys, and indexes available from the giants in the travel industry. While it may be nigh-on impossible to predict future travel behavior and trends with 100% accuracy, these insights have allowed us to get pretty close, but are they a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Global tourism indexes rank destinations by popularity, growth, spending, and competitiveness, providing insights into things such as the “most visited cities” and “the best countries for sustainability,” eagerly pointing out record-breaking visitor numbers.
However, in an age where online reviews, top-10 lists, and algorithmic recommendations dominate travel-related decision-making, there are more serious questions hiding beyond all the glossy statistics and media-friendly superlatives.
How are these indexes actually shaping traveler behavior, and is that influence always positive? Is it possible that they’re amplifying existing problems like overtourism, overcrowding, and unsustainable growth?
Understanding the impact of rankings on how, why, and where people travel is essential for destination managers, hoteliers, tourism investors, and policymakers, highlighting why it’s so important to find out what influences and motivates today’s travelers.
Travel and tourism indexes provide benchmarks, guide policymaking, and highlight trends for governments, investors, and stakeholders.
Some prominent index examples include:
While all these indexes provide valuable macro-level insights, there are growing concerns that their popularity-driven nature may create a distorted view of tourism success, amplifying existing problems like overtourism, crowding, and unsustainable growth.
In his keynote address at EHL’s Hospitality Finance & Economics Research Conference, Dr. Rico Maggi, professor at Università della Svizzera italiana, said, “When a destination becomes very popular, it gets ranked in an index, and this publicity actually spurs more growth… Indexes can unintentionally direct tourists toward already saturated locations.”
It’s essentially a feedback loop. When a city ranks highly for its visitor count, that visibility attracts more travelers. As demand increases, the infrastructure struggles, and residents start to feel the strain. At that point, the experience begins to deteriorate, both for locals and the very travelers drawn in by the hype.
This isn’t just theory, either, as multiple tourist hotspots have suffered real-world negative effects and consequences.
Venice has become overrun by cruise ship passengers and subsequently had to introduce entry fees to curb the daily tourist volume.
Bali struggles with infrastructure overload during the high season, despite its popularity as a “dream destination.”
Barcelona has seen protesters take to the streets as they feel they’re being forced out of their own city. Strict rules have been implemented to regulate short-term rentals, such as Airbnb, and to preserve local life.
Each of these destinations frequently appears in top tourism indexes, but their success has come at a cost. Popularity invites pressure, forcing many destinations to make a difficult choice, as being ranked highly may mean they’ll become overrun, losing the very identity that made them popular in the first place.
In the past, travelers mostly relied on brochures, guidebooks, or travel agents to help decide their next holiday, but that’s rarely the case today. Instead, they now find their destinations through search engines, review platforms, or one of the many “top destination” lists on travel sites.
This shift has also changed how destinations are perceived and chosen, influencing traveler behavior long before they’ve even booked their ticket.
As Dr. Maggi pointed out, “The trouble is that most destination indexes are all ordered rankings, so is that number one destination a good place to visit just because everyone goes there?”
Those “top-rated” destinations benefit from social proof. People are more likely to choose what others approve of, making these destinations more attractive in travelers’ eyes, even if these places don’t really match their preferences.
Seeing others giving it a thumbs up, they subconsciously associate it with quality, safety, and enjoyment; thus, popularity becomes a proxy for performance.
However, some new trends are emerging, and traveler behavior may be moving away from what the traditional indexes measure.
According to a 2023 report by Booking.com:
Google’s 2024 travel trends also show that there’s an increasing interest in “eco-luxury,” “regenerative travel,” and “cultural immersion.” None of these are directly represented in the standard volume-based indexes.
Factors such as authenticity and sustainability also influence travel decisions, and there’s been a shift in traveler behavior toward more conscious, individualized, and selective travel.
These values are often underrepresented in conventional tourism indexes. Mass appeal is still rewarded over individuality or sustainability, effectively creating a mismatch between what is promoted and what travelers are truly seeking.
Dr. Maggi says his research states that “the perceived pleasure of a tourism experience increases with the number of tourists and then decreases after a certain peak and declines with over-tourism.”
This “pleasure curve” shows there’s a risk of incentivizing growth without balance when destinations are rewarded purely for volume. In an era marked by climate concerns, overtourism, and shifting traveler behavior, this growth-at-all-costs model is unsustainable.
Indexes ranking destinations purely by arrivals and spending may push destinations past their peak. Potentially leading to lower satisfaction for travelers and diminishing returns for the local community.
Dr. Maggi also draws parallels to the economics of superstars, where the best performers receive the lion’s share of the attention and income. Translated for the tourism industry, a handful of destinations will receive most of the visitors and resources, while equally deserving, but less visible locations go overlooked.
Obviously, this imbalance is bad for the overlooked places, but there’s also a risk that the top-tier destinations become overcrowded or unstable.
In his speech, Dr. Maggi argues for a paradigm shift, saying the travel industry should evaluate destinations based on qualitative factors, not just quantity.
Across the industry, there’s now a growing consensus that traveler behavior is evolving. Washington State University’s “2024 American Travel Survey” (in collaboration with KRC Research) identified some key motivations that are driving modern travel decisions.
Nearly all travelers report that rising costs heavily influence destination choices. Inflation and post-pandemic economic shifts have made them carefully weigh the return on investment.
Sustainability, environmental awareness, and social responsibility matter more to travelers than ever, with 75% of Americans saying they prioritize this when planning their travels.
A significant majority believe responsible travel and ethical impact matter, seeing travel as a way to “do good” locally
Modern travelers are also seeking an emotional connection through meaningful experiences that stimulate personal growth or reconnection.
These findings are echoed by various Tripadvisor traveler behavior surveys, which show a marked increase in demand for local immersion, slow travel, and experiences with a lower ecological footprint.
McKinsey’s report on post-pandemic tourism trends shows that wellness travel, “bleisure” (business + leisure), and hyper-personalized itineraries are on the rise. Again, behaviors that usually aren’t reflected in the traditional index criteria.
For hospitality professionals, this signals a need to align service offerings, marketing messages, and brand positioning with behavioral trends, not just national tourism goals.
It’s also a call for smarter metrics to track traveler satisfaction, ethical impact, and long-term value, not just focusing on total arrivals and money spent.
Dr. Maggi’s proposed solution is to redesign tourism indexes by evaluating destinations through performance and sustainability, rather than rewarding the sheer volume of visitors.
Performance can be measured by the enjoyment or satisfaction a traveler derived from the experience, and sustainability by how the trip affects the destination’s people, environment, and economy. For example:
Some destinations are already shaping traveler behavior through such values-based tourism models:
As traveler behavior gets more value-driven and emotionally motivated, hospitality professionals, tourism boards, and even governments must adapt to keep up.
Modern travelers respond better to narrative-rich marketing that emphasizes cultural connection and purpose over promotions. Instead of just promoting deals, campaigns that share local traditions, human stories, and transformational moments may resonate more. UNWTO’s “Tourism Stories” and Destination Canada both lead global efforts to replace purely promotional messaging with values-based storytelling.
Platforms like Booking.com and Airbnb allow users to filter by preferences, such as “secluded,” “eco-friendly,” or “family-friendly.” This kind of “micro-indexing” aligns destinations and accommodations with emotional motivations, such as relaxation, adventure, or sustainability.
Measure what actually matters to guests and move beyond traditional performance indicators like RevPAR or occupancy rates. Leading hotel brands are now using metrics like Net Promoter Score (NPS), guest satisfaction index (GSI), and even post-stay sentiment analysis. According to Customer Alliance, tracking satisfaction and feedback across touchpoints increases both retention and profitability.
Understanding traveler motivations starts long before check-in, and it doesn’t end at checkout. Hotels and resorts that gather pre-trip intent data, such as wellness goals, dietary needs, etc., and post-trip feedback can create more personalized and responsive services, similar to Marriott Bonvoy’s loyalty strategy.
Partnering with regional tourism boards or community-based organizations can create deeper guest experiences and distribute economic benefits more equitably.
EHL’s Hospitality & Service DNA Solutions already bridges academic research and industry practice, helping destinations design smarter, behavior-informed tourism strategies that balance profit with purpose.
Tourism indexes aren’t going away any time soon, nor should they. That said, how they’re created and used must evolve with the times. The future of tourism isn’t just about attracting the most visitors, but also about creating the most meaningful, balanced, and sustainable experiences.
If traveler behavior continues moving toward sustainability, ethics, and emotion, continuing to measure success using outdated indicators will only reward the wrong outcomes.
Dr. Maggi reminds us that “indexes should be resource-based and include externalities,” meaning both what’s gained and what’s lost should be taken into consideration.
For destinations, this can be a blessing in disguise, not to mention an opportunity to tell better stories, build smarter infrastructure, and host more responsibly. For the industry at large, it’s a call to create tools that shape a better future rather than just rank the present.